Wednesday, February 6, 2008

What Happened Last Night?

NBC's Chris Donovan reports:


MCCAIN
9 states
3 red states /6 blue states
Arizona
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Missouri
New Jersey
New York
Oklahoma



ROMNEY
6 states
4 red states / 2 blue states
Colorado
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Montana
North Dakota
Utah


HUCKABEE
5 states
5 red states
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Tennessee
West Virginia


OBAMA
13 states
9 red states / 4 blue states
Alabama
Alaska
Connecticut
Colorado
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Minnesota
Missouri
North Dakota
Utah


CLINTON

8 states
4 red states / 4 blue states
Arkansas
California
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
Oklahoma
Tennessee


My Take: It looks like the Republican race is all but over. Romney failed to claim California, Connecticut or any southern state. So he didn't establish himself as McCain's "conservative alternative," as he'd hoped. Instead, he won Mormon- heavy states and his home state. Huckabee, meanwhile, impressed, and seems likely to be the Vice Presidential nominee.

It's air- tight on the Democratic side right now. Each candidate did what they had to, but nothing more. Obama hoped for a coup in New Jersey or California, but didn't threaten Clinton in either. However, he was able to pick up red states and show his general appeal. It affirms my earlier prediction that Obama will have an easier time beating John McCain (especially with Huckabee on the ticket, which is a tough combo), and showed his appeal in "moderate" states.

As for Hillary, she got a nice surprise with such an easy win in Massachusetts, and she handily won the big prize-- California. She was not able to claim true victory, however, and the longer this drags on, I think, the more the situation favors Obama.

2 comments:

republican for obama said...

while hillary certainly "survived" super tuesday, it was by far the most difficult period for obama to campaign for. now that the states are more spread out, watch how his momentum takes off this month and leaves hil needing a huge day on march 4th with texas and ohio. it'll be fun to watch whether she and bill can check their ego at the door, bow out gracefully, and support the best chance for a democrat to win the general election.

i love sam online said...

Today, Republican for Obama noted that Hillary merely 'survived' Super Tuesday, but is that really the case? She won California, New York (by a very large and unexpected margin), New Jersey, Tennessee, and Massachusetts (despite Mass. Senators Kerry and Kennedy endorsing Obama) among others. With results like these, certainly, she will be gaining momentum by the day.

However, while I was watching the results come in last night with a group of my 20-something friends, they all wondered where is Hillary's success coming from. None of us know anyone who is voting for her (except my mom, sisters, and me), and all the political "hype" surrounds Obama. Just think of all those big shots who endorsed him--Oprah, the Kennedy's, Maria Shriver, Kerry, even Will I Am (of the Black Eyed Peas). Yeah, he's the media's golden boy, and all of the bloggers (including the founder of Sam Online) love him. Personally, I think his wife is very pretty and smart, and its cool that he's a Chicago Bears fan. But, with or without all this, Obama really is the MTV generation's candidate, and his appeal spills over to 30 year-olds (everyone knows that 30 is the new 20). I can confidently say that Obama is the truly the cool candidate.

However, is that young, trend-following support base really enough to get him elected? Despite all the momentum behind him going into Super Tuesday, Obama did not pull off a really great victory. However, in my mind, Hillary did--her campaign showed that it isn't deterred by Obama fever. She is out to win, and her presence will be known across the country

But, this brings us back to the question, who in the world voted for her and not the cool candidate, Obama? Well, the answer is simple: America's silent majority. As one blogger put it, this silent majority consists of retired people, lots of blue-collar Democrats, and the average middle-income, middle-aged adults who don't show up on the blogs but who always vote. They aren't likely to be swayed by Facebook coverage, celebrity endorsements, or YouTube ads. They instead look at the straightforward facts and substantive issues. As a result, they know what I know--Hillary is what's best for America.