Perhaps the Best Political Speech in a Generation

Iowa's Winners and Losers

Last night Iowa caucus-goers made Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama big winners. So who else won last night? And who lost? Let's do a quick recap...

3 Big Winners-

John McCain: Huckabee's rise has come at the expense of Mitt Romney, who concentrated so much time, money and energy on the two early contests. Now that Romney is wounded, and McCain can pounce in his old New Hampshire strong-hold.

Democrats: Democratic caucus goers outnumbered Republicans 2 to 1. Also, 54% of Democratic caucus goers were first timers. That's unbelievable. Barack Obama dominated with young voters, and (gasp!) actually turned them out to vote. It's the unattainable goal of so many Democrats, and Obama may have finally found realized their potential.

Rudy Giuliani: The best case scenario for Rudy is a chaotic first few states before he jumps in in Florida. That means Huckabee in Iowa (check) McCain in New Hampshire and Romney in Michigan (where his father was governor). That way no one really has the momentum before he starts for real.

3 Big Losers-

Mitt Romney: See above, and know- if he doesn't win New Hampshire (his political backyard) he's finished. It's the same principle that doomed Howard Dean in 2004.

Hillary Clinton: What do you think Hill regrets the most? Running in Iowa in the first place; her answer to that illegal immigrant driver's license question in the Halloween debate; or moving to a new state to run for Senate, instead of waiting four years and running in her native Illinois and keeping Barack Obama in the state senate?

Fred Thompson: His relatively strong third place finish means he'll have to stick around through New Hampshire, and campaign another week instead of grabbing a cigar, a glass of scotch and the TV remote.

Latest Iowa Poll & What 2 Watch 4

Tonight is the night: the Iowa Caucuses begin shortly. Reuters/ CSPAN/ Zogby have a new poll out, with the latest numbers before they start rolling in tonight.

Obama- 31
Edwards- 27
Clinton- 24

Huckabee- 31
Romney- 25
Thompson- 11

3 Things to Watch For:

John McCain cracks the top 3, and grabs 15%- He spent no money and very little time in Iowa, if that happens he may really be "back."

Edwards beats Clinton- even if he loses to Obama, a strong #2 finish will mean his campaign can continue.

Thompson scores in single digits- he'll probably drop out and endorse his friend McCain.

On the Eve of Iowa, Remember...

What was going on four years ago? Howard Dean's campaign officially floundered after a third place Iowa finish, and officially died after the "Dean Scream" (below).



Back then, John Kerry came from nowhere to win the Democratic nomination on the strength of his electability. Will there be another of these moments tomorrow night?

We can only hope...

Let the campaign begin...

Barack Obama has announced that the gloves are off, and he's going to take on Hillary Clinton directly and forcefully. To that end, the campaign has posted his speech on Social Security reform on its YouTube site. Notice, more specifically, that Obama is introduced by a "regular person"-- an Iowa school teacher who stumbles over his words in a humble and honest way. You can tell he wrote the introduction himself, probably with a pen and notebook. It's a nice touch.



As for the speech itself, I like it. It's very direct and honest. And, he refers to Clinton as "ducking the issue" and following "conventional Washington thinking." He calls for a renewed sense of purpose and "shared responsibility."

//More from Iowa\\

NBC reports that Mitt Romney's lead in Iowa has expanded to a commanding 36.2% to 13.1% over Rudy Giuliani. Mike Huckabee is on Giuliani’s heels at 12.8% and Thompson is fourth with 11.4.%. Romney was at 27.8% in August; Huckabee was at just 1.8%. McCain stands at just 6%. Nearly 15% of Republican voters say they are undecided.

Romney was the only Republican candidate polling better with women than men, he's dominating with females (must be the hair). In fact, most Iowa Republican men are supporting Giuliani or Huckabee, but overall the race doesn't appear to even be close.