Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Last post on the weather--I promise

Let's follow-up on yesterday's weather experiment.

As we know, Obama blew away expectations. So much so that Clinton's campaign is blaming the weather, claiming that the weather disproportionately hampered older voters (who, according to exit polls, still prefer Clinton).

The bigger story, though, is that Obama seems to have carried virtually every other demographic segment. That apparent fact might absolve the seemingly busted weather theory--the theory that Obama underperforms in bad weather.

The hypothesis that Obama would not exceed expectations relied on a major, now defunct, premise: that Obama's support was largely composed of a mix of independents and young people (historically capricious blocs). The exit polls indicate that Obama's base of support is quickly and radically changing. Obama is becoming mainstream among Democrats. As this happens, his supporters will likely vote for him, rain or shine.


Anonymous said...

BO is sweeping America. Take a whiff!

Anonymous said...

hahaha that's pretty funny