Sunday, February 17, 2008

How Will it End?

SOME say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To know that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice

Fire and Ice, Robert Frost
People have been asking me a lot who I think will win the Democratic primary if it goes down to the Convention.

Mathematically, it will take Clinton blow-outs in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania to allow her to secure the nom based on elected delegates. Beyond that, she'll have to rely on superdelegates at the convention.

It's a nightmare that's a no- win situation for the Senator and her party. If the nomination is swung by Superdelegates, it will not only make Democrats into hypocrites from the Bush v. Gore fiasco, but it will leave Hillary illegitimate, amp up the Republican attack machine and sour her supporters. For those reasons, she'll concede before trying to gain the nomination that way.

It probably won't be in her control, anyway. Superdelegates are almost all former elected officials. If Obama has a clear lead among elected delegates, he'll have the allegiance of many superdelegates for the good of the party and the good of the process.

Yet, if Sen. Clinton can secure wins in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas, in addition to California, New York and Florida, she'll have carried 6 of the most populous states in the union. And if they are separated by only a handful of elected delegates, she'll have an equal claim to the nomination.

However, while Hillary's leads in those states seem to be holding, Obama usually gets stronger over time, so they might not deliver the clear mandates she needs there.

In the end, I don't see this unsettled in the Convention. The Democrats have too big a chance at victory to jeopardize by looking so small. The question is: how will it end?

Due respect to Mr. Frost, I see an icy, mid- March concession speech.


The Ghost of L. Ron Hubbard said...

When Chekhov saw the long winter, he saw a winter bleak and dark and bereft of hope. Yet we know that winter is just another step in the cycle of life. But standing here among the people of Punxsutawney and basking in the warmth of their hearths and hearts, I couldn't imagine a better fate than a long and lustrous winter.

Anonymous said...

you moved me, man

Anonymous said...

There is no way this winter is *ever* going to end as long as that groundhog keeps seeing his shadow. I don't see any way out of it. He's got to be stopped. And I have to stop him.

Chris Meehan said...

No, but my father was a piano MOVER, so...