Let's test the weather theory today.
RealClearPolitics.com has averaged the latest polls and, as expected, Obama is the heavy favorite today. Here are the spreads which presumably do not take weather into account:
Virginia: Obama +17.7 and Maryland: Obama +22.3.
The theory goes, when the weather is bad, Obama meets or does slightly worse than expected. In the Super Tuesday sample, he never exceeded expectations where it rained. The weather will be bad in all three states voting today.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Tuesday Afternoon Weather Experiment
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