Thursday, August 23, 2007

'08 Update

The presidential election is a mere 439 days away... so let's take a quick look at where we're at:

Clinton: Still leading comfortably in every national poll, Clinton has accomplished her main task- she can essentially just play defense and ride out the primary season. In baseball terms, it's like she's a pitcher with an 8 run lead in the 5th inning. She just has to relax, throw strikes, and trust her defense will come through. It's hers to lose, she just has to avoid any major gaffes (shouldn't be a problem for such a seasoned and savvy pol) and downplay her differences from her rivals. That's how you know she's winning, because the press is running with the "experience" vs. "change" theme, and that's a winning theme for Hillary. She's framing the debate, and any time a candidate can do that they're good as gold.

Obama: His campaign is kind of in neutral. He's established himself as the primary alternative to Clinton, which is huge, but that only gets you so far. Obama is still the second banana, and while he's closed (or eliminated) the fundraising gap, he hasn't had as much success with the polling gap. On the other hand, if I were in his campaign I'd be content with his decent polling numbers, because Clinton's support could erode when voters think about her electability in the general election. Look for Obama to give a lot of "Republicans want you to vote for Hillary" speeches this fall.

Edwards: I know I write a lot about him on this site, but I just find his campaign damn fanscinating. Right now, he's attempting to hit the restart button, and do a take two. Serious problems with his cash flow, silly issues with his hair, and the need to reinvent himself have played against Edwards. I think it's too bad, because he has potential. Bottom line: His Iowa springboard strategy is a long shot, and, therefore, so is he.

Giuliani: I have kind of agreed with the "expert" analysis on Rudy: He just can't win, just wait 'til conservative voters get what he's about, and his support will fade. Yet, the man has only gotten stronger. His staying power has been the major story on the Republican side (along with McCain's collapse). That said, I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop and I have to believe it's coming.

Thompson: As James Carville put it: "A lot of people want to be president, but not a lot want to go through what it takes to get there." This is a guy who nearly dropped out of his Senate run because he hated the campaign life. Is he ever going to announce? Or does he just like his picture on TV every night (as if the constant L&O reruns weren't enough). If I were Giuliani or Romney, he honestly wouldn't scare me much.

McCain: ... cricket... cricket...

Romeny: He's the favorite by default, I really like his Iowa strategy, and think he would take Rudy out in a one- on- one match up. He's got electability, is faking conservative credentials, and has lots of dough (by Republican standards).

2 comments:

CPUSA said...

What's up with the Gravel analyses?

Anonymous said...

Please SAMMAGONLINE don't tell me you too are ignoring the only candidate who dares to challenge the status quo, speaks about making real changes and taking this country in a positive direction...Dennis "the menace" Kucinick! What is wrong with a "Department of Peace". Why is there no dialogue about this???