Wednesday, July 25, 2007

The Curious Case of M. Bloomberg


A lot of people are wondering whether New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will run for president, and, if so, what his impact will be.

Bloomberg built a massive media corporation from scratch, and has a fortune estimated to be anywhere between $5-25 billion. He is intriuging because (a) he has done a very good job running the US's largest city, (b) he embodies the disatisfaction with both parties, and most importantly, (c) he is a serious candidate who could use his own money to out- spend anyone else.

So let's look at the first question: Will Bloomberg run?

I think this has a simple answer: yes.

- Last month Bloomberg, a former registered Democrat who switched parties just before his election as mayor in 2001, changed party affiliation from Republican to Independent. A speech explaining the move was basically a diatribe about the failures of both parties and the disillusionment of the American public.

- The mayor is basically touring the country. He was on the cover of Time with CA Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger; the two have taken a lead on issues such as environmental protection and stem cell research. Along the way they have championed the cause of local government, and criticized the feds and partisanship in general. Soon, Bloomberg will be speaking to the National Urban League in St. Louis; the same group is hearing from Democratic presidential candidates this Friday.

- Yesterday, Bloomberg announced that the website domain mike2008.com would now link to his personal site, mikebloomberg.com. He said that he wanted to prevent squatters, and pointed out that mike2007.com and michaelbloomberg.com also link to his site.

OK, here's the thing: Bloomberg is done as NYC mayor as of January 2009. He's in lame duck status right now. Do the actions described above sound like those of a man ready to ride off into the sunset, satisfied with a job well done? Why follow Democratic presidential candidates in St. Louis? Why do you care about cyber squatters? Why shed your party affiliation so publicly? Why the constant talk about how "Americans" (not New Yorkers) are fed- up with partisan politics? You may believe that in your heart, but why make such a big deal about it? What does it have to do with your last year as mayor?

Maybe Bloomberg's explanations should be taken at face value. But I don't think so. I think he's in.

Which brings us to question 2: What impact will Bloomberg have on the race?

Think about it: Obama/ Clinton, Giuliani/ Thompson/ Romney, they exert all that energy, spend all that money just beating the hell out of each other. This is the longest, most expensive, and most competitive primary season EVER.

The dust clears with two candidates left to vie for the presidency. The public is sick and tired of them, of their faces, voices, stump speeches and debates.

Then, let's say in April of next year, a new face emerges. He's talking about the problems of our system- the partisanship and money's influence. But he's different, he has no party, he takes no money. He capitalizes on the frustrations that won Ross Perot (for all his bizarre behavior) 19% of the vote in 1992. But this time that frustration is even more intense, and this guy has the legitimacy Perot lacked.

Oh yeah, and he has more money in his campaign warchest than the other two candidates combined.

Can he win? Probably not, but that's not really the point. The point is, you're Mike Bloomberg, you've never failed at anything, and you're not ready to retire. And someone comes into your office and paints that picture. The time is right, you're told, you're the one guy who can pull it off, the country wants you to give it a shot.

You sit back in your chair and think.

What do you do? I think you run. And while I doubt he'll win, he'll be a more formidible candidate than Perot, and he'll have a big impact on the race.

It may seem that his votes will be split along party lines. But I predict he'll attract more Republican support than Democratic. My reasoning is two-fold:

1- The Dems want this election bad. There are (at last count) 2 fewer Democratic candidates than Republican, but Dems have outraised Republicans by more than $100m, from a far broader base of donors. As tempting as Bloomberg will be they won't risk it. Conversely, Republicans don't seem too smitten with any of their candidates. Newt Gingrich recently called the field pathetic.

2- There has been a split in the Republican party brewing for a while between the "Evangelical wing" who care more about social issues, and the "Rockafeller/Blue blood/ New England Republicans" who care about financial conservatism (read: low taxes). The latter group feels that their party has been hijacked by issues like gay marriage, stem cell research, and abortion. These are not issues they care about (or with which they even agree with the Republican stance). They have little loyalty to "social" conservatism (see Bush's 25% approval rating).

Obviously No. 2 is less significant if someone like Giuliani gets the nom, but the point could be a big one.

So I think Bloomberg is in, and he hurts his former party. And by that, I'm referring to Republicans.

42 comments:

byrd said...

I think this analysis is accurate. One thing I do wonder though is who Bloomberg will take moer votes from: the republicans or democrats? my instinct tells me dems but, then again, he will get a big moderate republican swing. I still think clinton will win the election if she faces anyone in the current field of republicans but it is in her interest to keep the wild card out.

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Personally im not gay. but if i was, I would totally be hittin Barack Obama. I mean look at the guy, hes got it all. He talks well, hes got the swagger of a coke dealer and the intelligence of a Harvard Law nerd.

However, this brings up a much bigger point, one that i have not seen on this blog at all and frankly i am appalled about it. This is an issue that has supreme importance as we near the 2008 election: Elizabeth Edwards or Hilary Clinton.

I mean obviously ms. edwards is preferable because she likes girly men like me. Seriously, John Edwards spends more time grooming himself then most male swimmers. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AE847UXu3Q.

However, you have to consider the fact that Hilary must be a monster in teh sack and has no problem taking control and telling you how much a woman you are and how wrong you are about the economy and how your foreign policy is naive. My foreign policy is naive, i'd love to go talk to fidel and get some cigars and beans and rice. That shit is good. Also Kim Jong Ill makes some mean Dim Sun.
On the other hand would i really be comfortable with being told that i am more of a girl than Chuck Schumer and wouldn't have the balls to tell CAFTA to go screw themselves. Frankly that would insult my manhood.
Thus I have to go with Elizabeth Edwards. She is obviously a sweet woman from the way she coodles her bitch of a husbend and tries to make him look as straight as possible even though hes better acquinted with women's rights then even the lone female candidate. Plus, she's a badass, basically a single mother, dealing with cancer, a pussy husbend and trying to win an election for another person. That's badass.

On a completely unrelated note, watch this, cause if there is one sibling of John Silvermann who deverse to get her/his ass kicked its sarah. she's a bitch and has been telling people her brother is gay for years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaJP5aeSo4Y

Chris Meehan said...

hey byrd... i guess you didn't read the whole post (understandable) but i think bloomberg takes more votes from republicans than dems, though im not sure the difference is enough to really matter.

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byrd said...

meehan- I did read your whole post but I still think that bloomberg acts more like a dem than a republican. much like perot was more a republican than a dem.

Douglas E. Flynn said...

As a Democrat, I would be inclined to vote for Bloomberg. How about this for a independent ticket: Gore/Bloomberg 2008. THAT would certainly get my vote.

Goose said...

Meehan--
I know i am a few days late on this post, but I think your analysis is very accurate. Especially the part about Bloomberg dividing the Republican vote. If he ran, I see a Gore/Bush/Nader thing happening, where the third party gets just enough votes to make a difference.
One thing however is I am not sure how Bloomberg will be received in "Middle America". I guess he has the money to get his name out there, but I think he will suffer being from NYC and all since most voters (although increasingly less) aren't city dwellers. Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens.

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