Iowa's Winners and Losers

Last night Iowa caucus-goers made Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama big winners. So who else won last night? And who lost? Let's do a quick recap...

3 Big Winners-

John McCain: Huckabee's rise has come at the expense of Mitt Romney, who concentrated so much time, money and energy on the two early contests. Now that Romney is wounded, and McCain can pounce in his old New Hampshire strong-hold.

Democrats: Democratic caucus goers outnumbered Republicans 2 to 1. Also, 54% of Democratic caucus goers were first timers. That's unbelievable. Barack Obama dominated with young voters, and (gasp!) actually turned them out to vote. It's the unattainable goal of so many Democrats, and Obama may have finally found realized their potential.

Rudy Giuliani: The best case scenario for Rudy is a chaotic first few states before he jumps in in Florida. That means Huckabee in Iowa (check) McCain in New Hampshire and Romney in Michigan (where his father was governor). That way no one really has the momentum before he starts for real.

3 Big Losers-

Mitt Romney: See above, and know- if he doesn't win New Hampshire (his political backyard) he's finished. It's the same principle that doomed Howard Dean in 2004.

Hillary Clinton: What do you think Hill regrets the most? Running in Iowa in the first place; her answer to that illegal immigrant driver's license question in the Halloween debate; or moving to a new state to run for Senate, instead of waiting four years and running in her native Illinois and keeping Barack Obama in the state senate?

Fred Thompson: His relatively strong third place finish means he'll have to stick around through New Hampshire, and campaign another week instead of grabbing a cigar, a glass of scotch and the TV remote.

Quote of the Day 10/9

"Oh sh--, he's dumb as hell..."

- President Richard Nixon on minority counsel Fred D. Thompson, a young lawyer in the Senate during the Watergate trials.

The Nixon tapes reveal the following about old Fred (from ABC News):

HR Halderman, Chief of Staff: Baker has appointed Fred Thompson minority counsel."

Nixon: Oh, s-- that kid?

Nixon: Well [majority counsel] Dash is too smart for that kid.

John Dean, presidential aide: Sure, run circles around him.

///
Nixon: He's not very smart is he?

Fred Buzhardt, White House counsel: No, not very, but he's--

Nixon: But he's friendly.

Buzhardt: He's friendly.

Nixon: Good.

A Funny Thing about Fred Thompson

Is that he often doesn't know what he's talking about.

So far on his campaign trail, Thompson pleaded ignorance to, or misspoke on the following issues:

- Terry Schiavo

- Oil Drilling in the Everglades

- Lethal injection being ruled unconstitutional in his home state of Tennessee

- Whether Democrats or Republicans controlled Congress during Chief Justice John Roberts' confirmation hearings.

And these are pretty bad mistakes. When you're doing an event in Florida, know about the debate over the Everglades, if you're from Tennessee, know about major court cases there.

The Roberts thing, which just happened, was also pretty disturbing. Thompson was bragging about how he guided Roberts to confirmation, at the request of the president.

“The president called me up and asked me to help shepherd Judge Roberts’ nomination through the Senate confirmation process. I was honored that I got that call. I was honored that he thought I had enough friends on the Democratic side that they wouldn't run me out of town!... Even though the other party controlled the Judiciary committee, we got some votes there."

Except, Republicans were in charge at that point. So either he's lying to beef up his bipartisan credentials, or he's confused about something pretty basic.

Sorry, Senator Thompson, but the American people would never elect a man with such a loose grasp of current events.

Fred Thompson DOESN'T scream for ice cream!!

You know its a slow day in politics when you read this note posted on MSNBC.com's cover about Fred Thompson's outright and emphatic decision not to eat ice cream. Brace yourself folks, this is not for the weak of heart.....

"On the road between Sioux City and Mason City, IA, Thompson made an unexpected stopover at Bob's Drive In in Le Mars, the self-billed "ice cream capital of the world." Le Mars, in fact, is the headquarters of Wells Blue Bunny Ice Cream, and nearly all of the diners at Bob's were Blue Bunny employees. Yet despite spending nearly 30 minutes there, walking through Bob's and shaking hands with numerous diners, Thompson re-boarded the bus -- without trying any of the town's specialties. He didn't even sit and eat one of the "Bob Dogs" with any of the diners. Afterwards a campaign spokesman jokingly justified Thompson's decision not to eat by pointing to Thompson's well-publicized diet and workout regimen."

I mean what's the point in even running anymore? Surely the treasure trove of potential donors will dry up upon hearing the news that the former Tennessee senator rebuffed an invitation to try a "Bob Dog." Who could resist Bob's secret recipe?!

Also I wasn't sure what Thompson's "well-publicized diet and workout regimen" entailed until I did some research. As it turns out the 65 year old former actor turned politician did a series of videos with Billy Banks entitled "Tae Old." Who would have thought....

Slow your role, McAuliffe!

"I'm never underestimating another B-movie actor"

- Former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe on Fred Thompson. McAuliffe was part of the Carter administration when Ronald Reagan, a former B actor, defeated Carter and became president.

Of course Mr. McAuliffe fails to recognize that The Hunt for Red October and In the Line of Fire are NOT B movies!

Recap: Republican Debate

Didn't watch tonight's Republican Debate? You're not alone (I didn't either, but I did watch Leno), but don't worry SAM's here to recap what went down...and what didn't (try to guess which is which).

- Rudy did the second half dressed in drag.

- When asked about his tenuous situation with his immediate family (his 2nd wife hates him, he doesn't speak with his son, his daughter publicly supports Obama) Giuliani gave an honest answer, according to Mark McCurry of NBC, "He answered this question by discussing 1) that private is different from the public and 2) that -- like many Americans -- he isn't perfect when it comes to family. 'I am not running as the perfect candidate for president,' he said. 'I am running as a human being.'"

- McCain, desparate for attention, did the second half of the debate completely naked.

- McCain harped on a theme of fiscal responsibility. He did not take a pledge not to raise taxes, but rather railed against pork spending, deficits, and unfair earmarks. To be fair, pork spending is completely out of hand, reform is long overdue, and it's only getting worse. But come on. We're at war. People are terrified of a looming recession. Terrified of al Qaeda. Terrified of China. McCain's got to get back in this thing... is pork going to get it done???

- Out of nowhere, the Law and Order "doink doink" sound echoed through the auditorium and Fred Thompson appeared standing 10 feet tall in the middle of the other candidates. The crowd was silent, and Fred bellowed "It's feeding time" and swallowed Sam Brownback whole.

- Fred didn't show, but told Jay Leno "I am running for president," just before critiquing the debate process and reminding voters how early in the campaign it is. And he's right on both counts, incidentally.

- Giuliani gave a heads up to Democrats who hope to run against him in 2012 when he said: "It is my intention to lower taxes." Not exactly a "read my lips" moment, but it was close...

- When asked by Leno if he was for the war when it began, Thompson said he was. In his answer, Thompson sought to remind Americans that if we hadn't gone to do what we did "Saddam would be continuing his nuclear weapons program."

- Upon hearing that answer I shouted at the television "WHAT NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM?" and my head exploded

Big Night

The Republican race takes center stage as candidates debate in Durham, NC... well, most of the candidates debate. Fred Thompson, who is scheduled to announce officially tomorrow on his website, will instead go on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno. But not to worry, voters!-- Team Fred is running a TV commercial during the debate.

"On the next president's watch, our country will make decisions that will affect our lives and our families far into the future," Thompson says in the ad. "We can't allow ourselves to become a weaker, less prosperous and more divided nation."

So that takes care of that...

To be fair, though, it's not like there won't be a half-dozen other debates before the first ballots are cast.

He's (officially) In

3 months after he began "testing the waters," Fred D. Thompson is ready to announce his candidacy for President of the United States. People have been getting a little frustrated with Big Fred, who certainly took his time coming to this decision. On a morning conference call with supporters, Friends of Fred (Thompson's campaign) announced their "next steps," which includes a webcast (a la Hillary Clinton) on September 6 to formally announce.

In an unfortunate twist, this means that NBC will pull all Law & Order re-runs in which Thompson appears, which sucks because those are the best ones. NBC is forced to do so because there would be complications with laws on equal time for political candidates.

'08 Update

The presidential election is a mere 439 days away... so let's take a quick look at where we're at:

Clinton: Still leading comfortably in every national poll, Clinton has accomplished her main task- she can essentially just play defense and ride out the primary season. In baseball terms, it's like she's a pitcher with an 8 run lead in the 5th inning. She just has to relax, throw strikes, and trust her defense will come through. It's hers to lose, she just has to avoid any major gaffes (shouldn't be a problem for such a seasoned and savvy pol) and downplay her differences from her rivals. That's how you know she's winning, because the press is running with the "experience" vs. "change" theme, and that's a winning theme for Hillary. She's framing the debate, and any time a candidate can do that they're good as gold.

Obama: His campaign is kind of in neutral. He's established himself as the primary alternative to Clinton, which is huge, but that only gets you so far. Obama is still the second banana, and while he's closed (or eliminated) the fundraising gap, he hasn't had as much success with the polling gap. On the other hand, if I were in his campaign I'd be content with his decent polling numbers, because Clinton's support could erode when voters think about her electability in the general election. Look for Obama to give a lot of "Republicans want you to vote for Hillary" speeches this fall.

Edwards: I know I write a lot about him on this site, but I just find his campaign damn fanscinating. Right now, he's attempting to hit the restart button, and do a take two. Serious problems with his cash flow, silly issues with his hair, and the need to reinvent himself have played against Edwards. I think it's too bad, because he has potential. Bottom line: His Iowa springboard strategy is a long shot, and, therefore, so is he.

Giuliani: I have kind of agreed with the "expert" analysis on Rudy: He just can't win, just wait 'til conservative voters get what he's about, and his support will fade. Yet, the man has only gotten stronger. His staying power has been the major story on the Republican side (along with McCain's collapse). That said, I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop and I have to believe it's coming.

Thompson: As James Carville put it: "A lot of people want to be president, but not a lot want to go through what it takes to get there." This is a guy who nearly dropped out of his Senate run because he hated the campaign life. Is he ever going to announce? Or does he just like his picture on TV every night (as if the constant L&O reruns weren't enough). If I were Giuliani or Romney, he honestly wouldn't scare me much.

McCain: ... cricket... cricket...

Romeny: He's the favorite by default, I really like his Iowa strategy, and think he would take Rudy out in a one- on- one match up. He's got electability, is faking conservative credentials, and has lots of dough (by Republican standards).

For Romney, it's Family First

A mayor with more baggage than the Howells on Gilligan's three hour tour. A Mormon representing "Liberal America," and marketing himself to the Christian Right. A 64 year old senator with a SAG card in his pocket, and a 39 year old trophy on his arm.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Republican presidential candidates.

But it's all in how you look at it:

America's mayor, the man who packs the emotional punch of a hurricane. A political legacy with a record of broad-based appeal, and success in business and administration. A two- term southern senator claiming the mantle of Ronald Reagan, with the skills to back it up.

Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the front- runner. He has the most money, the most press, and the most support. But he's vulnerable. You know that crack about his baggage? Well it's an understatement. He's been divorced twice (once from his cousin), and had how many wives, Rudy? (see pic to right); he's estranged from his only son; has a history of supporting gay rights, abortion rights, and gun control; and the firefighters' union is trying to rip down his 9/11-hero persona with a slew of charges. I mean they are just itching to swiftboat this guy back to Brooklyn. Bottom line: he is not the conservative or establishment darling George W. Bush was, not by a long shot.

Meanwhile, Thompson hasn't even declared yet, so he's relatively new to the equation. Without his presence, John McCain's meltdown would have put Romney in a one on one match up with Giuliani. That was Romney's goal when he got his campaign together a year ago, so you know he's disappointed to even deal with big Fred.

The two each have to be the anti-Rudy, and whoever does the best job will square off with the Mayor for the nomination. So they share a goal, but also a problem: neither of them really is the anti- Rudy.

Romney is the son of the former governor of Michigan, and a practicing Mormon. His religion does not easily jibe with more mainstream Christian faiths. Also, he served as Governor of liberal Massachusetts, where he ran as a pro- choice moderate, never much caring about the social issues that have motivated conservatives in the recent past.

He has since "rethought" his stance on abortion and stem cell research, but voters may not buy what Republican candidate Tom Tancredo called "a conversion on the road to Des Moines, not Damascus."

Thompson doesn't offer bedrock conservatism, either. As reported by the Washington Times, "[His] most-oft-cited credential is his 86.1 percent lifetime (1995-2002) Senate vote rating compiled by the ACU, the leading arbiter of conservatism." However, this rating was consistently lower than his fellow Senator from Tennessee, Bill Frist, making him, the Wash Times snickers, the "liberal Senator from Tennessee." There are also questions that Thompson lobbied for a pro- choice group.

So neither have the record to stand up boldly against Giuliani as the "Conservative" choice. But that doesn't mean they won't do it anyway. For Romney, who married his high school sweetheart some thirty years ago, winning that battle means focusing on his family. The Romneys have five sons (all of whom are visible on the campaign trail), with five daughters-in-law, and ten grandkids. They'll all be in Iowa for the Ames straw- poll on August 11.

"I can't wait for you to meet our family," Romney says.

Yeah, no kidding.

Giuliani is on his third wife and isn't on speaking terms with his last one, or their son. Thompson is on his second, a very accomplished (and very hot) former political consultant, 24 years his junior.

In the early, small states where politics is retail and many voters actually meet each candidate, this advantage is huge.

Romney is the only leading candidate taking the part in the Ames straw poll. He leads in Iowa and New Hampshire. So his strategy is to come out strong, establish himself as a force, and hope his momentum carries. Without those early states Romney is a dead duck, but with his family by his side, he's looking good.

The other two guys know it, too, their strategies basically concede Iowa and New Hampshire (which the reshuffled primary calendar allows them to do).

Thompson will hope Giuliani takes Romney out in the big states in the Northeast and West, while he focuses on the South, setting up his preferred two man showdown.

There seems to be something missing in this equation. Perhaps someone with the conservative chops to actually be Giuliani's legitimate counterpoint. People are talking about former Speaker Newt Gingrich making a run. He has done zero to quiet the speculation, either, recently evoking Stalin (yes, Stalin) by calling the current field "pygmies." But I doubt he'll run.

The funny twist is that for all the talk about how Romney's Mormonism may hurt his campaign, it has had, shall we say, an unintended benefit of leading to quite a large (and photogenic) family. So sometimes a weakness can turn into a strength.

I guess it's all in how you look at it.

Casting Couch: Fred Thompson

This is a tough one.



For former Senator Thompson we need someone with gravitas, a big voice and a long Hollywood resume. We need someone who really looks like a serious politician (regardless of how seriously he actually takes the job); someone who is a go-to for directors and casting agents when filling the role of a president, senator, police chief, top attorney, or guy-in-the-know.

This has got to be someone who has stage presence, you're not sure what he stands for, but he looks damn good standing there. Come to think of it, I think I know just the guy...

Fred Thompson



Who else but the star of Die Hard 2: Die Harder, In the Line of Fire, and The Hunt For Red October (not to mention all those Law and Orders) could fill the shoes of the two term senator from Tennessee? Ronald Reagan would be proud.