For Obama, Time to get Tough is Now

To the surprise of many, Zogby's monthly presidential poll has John McCain +5 points, a 12 point swing since just last month.

The nerves of many Democrats are frayed because Sen. Barack Obama has stumbled even though the public's general view of Democrats remains more positive than it is of Republicans. There are many explanations for Obama's false start:

First, race probably plays a role.

Second, Obama took a long vacation, anticipating a lull in campaign coverage and interest during the Olympics. This was probably a strategic decision to prevent peaking too early, and to minimize the public fatigue before the hard campaigning of the fall.

But another contributing factor to his under-performance is Obama's reticence to attack his opponent. McCain's consistently hard hits have been met with tepid reactions. Too many of Obama's attacks are mere responses, allowing the McCain camp to control the narrative of the campaign and making it a referendum on Obama, rather than about the struggles of the last eight years. For example, when McCain hit Obama as a "celebrity," Obama debuted an ad pointing out that McCain is also a celebrity.

Unless Obama can get back in front of the curve and control the story, he's in real danger of losing under the most favorable conditions Democrats have seen since FDR.

For instance, McCain inaccurately stated multiple times that Iran trained al Qaeda insurgents in Iraq. Not only untrue, but demonstrative of a failure to understand a basic premise of Middle East relations-- the deep differences between factions of the Muslim faith-- something George W. Bush didn't understand until too late.

If Obama had made those mistakes, a barrage of "Is he ready to lead?" ads would have hit the air that week. Because it was McCain, those gaffes have been all but forgotten.

Up to this point, Obama's campaign can be readily contrasted with how Sen. Clinton would have run, which may cost him confidence in his own party. She'd have hit back, and hard.

It's no wonder that Obama hasn't gotten too dirty yet, staying above the fray was a precept of his campaign and a key to his success. But the time to engage is here. In choosing a VP, Obama would be wise to pick a pit bull, someone (like Joe Biden) who will criticize Republican policies openly, honestly and without any reservation.

Obama was probably smart to wait this long, but now he should make a move, and quickly, because his campaign may depend on it.

Who Dropped the Musharraf Ball

Yesterday, the NY Times ran an article detailing the fractured relationship between the Bush Administration and Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf. As al Qaeda has slowly and surely rebuilt in the snowy mountains of the country's warlord region, the US has yet to force action on Musharraf's part.

That's not to say there is no plan-- the Pentagon drafted a way for Special Ops to infiltrate the region believed to harbor most of al Qaeda's leaders more than six months ago, but President Bush has not implemented it. This has caused much consternation and in-fighting as the administration winds up.

From the article:

In order to keep pressure on the Pakistanis about the tribal areas, officials decided to have Mr. Bush raise the issue in personal phone calls with Mr. Musharraf.

The conversations backfired. Two former United States government officials say they were surprised and frustrated when instead of demanding action from Mr. Musharraf, Mr. Bush instead repeatedly thanked him for his contributions to the war on terrorism. “He never pounded his fist on the table and said, ‘Pervez you have to do this,’ ” said a former senior intelligence official who saw transcripts of the phone conversations. But another senior administration official defended the president, saying that Mr. Bush had not gone easy on the Pakistani leader.

Al Qaeda outlook not good

From the WTF department...

President Bush's top counter terrorism officials have released a comprehensive anti-terrorism report, the largest one since 9/11. The news is not good when it comes to the war against al Qaeda. It seems that the cease fire negotiated in Pakistan has allowed al Qaeda to reach new strength over the past two years.

While the president has argued that Iraq is the "central front" in the war on terror, al Qaeda has gained strength in the mountains of Pakistan's under the protection of the region's warlords. American officials have been meeting in recent weeks to discuss how to confront the resurgent threat. The report is the consensus view of the 16 agencies that make up the American intelligence community.

The picture to above shows a Pakistani soldier "guarding" its boarder with the warlord region.

Meanwhile, the White House continued to harp on Iraq as the central front in the war on terror, saying that Osama bin Laden (remember him?) also thought of it that way.

Bin Laden was unavailable for comment.