Way to Prove a Point, Dan

This morning on MSNBC's venerable "Morning Joe" hosted by Nobel Laureate Joe Scarborough and MacArthur Genius Fellow Tiki Barber, Dan Rather reminded everyone why he's not allowed to talk on real TV anymore.

Normally, I'd kind of ignore this type of thing, but the context was just too perfect. The three were discussing when Jesse Jackson was caught on tape saying was "tired of [Barack Obama] talking down to black folks," and that he wanted to "cut [Obama's] nuts off."

So Rather plods along predictable lines: "I respect Jesse Jackson... blah blah... 24 hour news cycle... yada yada... new culture" basically saying that you always have to be ready and extremely careful with every word nowadays or it will be on the front page tomorrow.

Then he mistakenly calls Barack Obama Osama bin Laden.

The full name.

And doesn't miss a beat.

Wow...

Big Shoes

Friday the political world lost a giant when Tim Russert tragically passed at 58.

Everything that can be said about Russert, the top political journalist of the last 15 years, has or will be said by his family and friends.

In addition a couple of meetings when I worked in DC a few years back, I'll remember Russert fondly for the education he provided every week on Meet the Press, when I was still forming my political identity, and his status as favorite adopted son of my alma mater, Boston College.

NBC News will never be the same. But now, the search for a successor (though not a replacement) begins.

Personally, I would like to see David Gregory fill that void on Meet the Press. I've wondered about the next step for Gregory, who covered the Bush Administration for NBC, what with Brian Williams firmly entrenched in the anchor-chair. His intelligence, experience and sense of humor would make him an asset on Sunday morning. However, there is a legitimate question of whether Gregory has the necessary gravitas and uncompromising attention to detail that led to Russert's unparalleled success.

If not Gregory then perhaps someone with experience similar to Russert's before taking the reigns: a behind the scenes producer and former political hand. Then again, that might not be accepteable in this uber partisan era. Because of all the current squabbling, we might miss out on an immense talent like Russert's. So there probably won't ever be another like him. But you didn't need me to tell you that.

All Even

The New York Times, CBS and ABC are all reporting that Barack Obama has caught, and maybe even passed, Hillary Clinton in super-delegate support. These party officials had been Clinton's last refuge in her race for the Democratic nomination.

ABC actually has Obama with a one- delegate lead. Meanwhile, NBC News still puts Clinton on top, albeit by an ever shrinking margin- 273.5 to 267. I tend to trust NBC News, because I like Chuck Todd so much.

Whatever the case, it's only a matter of time now before Obama is his party's nominee for president.

Rahm Emanuel, the powerful Congressman from Illinois called Sen. Obama the "presumptive nominee." He leads in states won, votes cast and money raised, so this shift in super-delegates was really only a matter of time.

Delegate Update

NBC News has allocated some of the pledged delegates from Indiana and Pennsylvania.

INDIANA: Clinton 35-31 (6 remain to be allocated)
NORTH CAROLINA: Obama 49-42 (24 remain to be allocated)

The Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,572-1,415
SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 272.5-256
OVERALL: 1,828-1.687.5

This would put Obama within 197 of the 2,025. (This, of course, does not include Florida and Michigan.)

NOTE: For those tracking popular vote and that metric at home, Obama has likely netted more of the popular vote out of North Carolina than Clinton did in Pennsylvania. With 98% reporting in North Carolina, Obama leads by 225,266 votes. Clinton netted 214,224 out of Pennsylvania.

PA Preview: Bowlers and Gun- Owners

NBC News provides an first glance at what to expect during tomorrow's Democratic Pennsylvania Primary:

A new MSNBC/McClatchy/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette poll suggests things are staying fairly competitive in Pennsylvania. This survey of 625 likely Dem primary voters was conducted Thursday and Friday, and it shows Clinton leading Obama by five points, 48%-43%. So what happens on Tuesday? Looking inside the poll's demographics, the highest undecided totals are in the more rural parts of the state -- and that's not good news for Obama. In the so-called "T" region of the state (almost everything between Philly and Pittsburgh), Clinton leads 51%-37% with 11% undecided; this is one of the few demographic groups sporting double-digit undecided. Two other interesting crosstabs with high undecideds also signal the potential that the undecided vote will break for Clinton. Among bowlers (24% of the electorate) and gun owners (38% of the electorate), Clinton leads big among these cultural conservatives: She's up 54%-33% among bowlers and 53%-28% among gun owners. So while the poll shows Clinton with a narrow -- and arguably narrowing -- lead, the clues inside the numbers indicate this is her race to lose and that her lead could expand.

*** Will it be five points or more? Should tomorrow’s primary end up as close as this poll suggests (i.e., five points or less), then this means many of these undecided potential Clinton voters decided to stay home. If they come to the polls, she could see her lead climb to more than five points. And this seems to be why Obama has gone negative in the past couple of days: to keep these undecideds away. He might have also sharpened his tone a bit to beat back the growing post-debate perception that he was looking weak. After all, the undecided voter in Pennsylvania looks to be the type of voter that wants to see a strong walkin' and talkin' candidate. So here’s the game on Tuesday -- it’s not if Clinton will win, but how big will her victory be. She'd like to net more than 200,000 in the popular vote, which she would only get with both a large turnout (approximately 2 million total) and a 10-point-plus victory.

Superdelegate Update

NBC News provides a very helpful update on where the Superdelegate count lies:

We listed the Senate superdelegates endorsements earlier today. We've broken out the House backers as well, and Clinton leads 72-68. That means there are 92 House members who are undecided. Also of note among these House endorsers, 23 of Clinton's 72 are reps from New York (32%). By contrast, nine of Obama's House backers are from Illinois (13%).

Here's how Clinton's and Obama's superdelegate support breaks down:
Among senators: Obama 14-12
Among representatives: Clinton 72-68
Then, among party activists/former party leaders: Clinton leads 171-140
TOTAL: Clinton 255, Obama 222

Todd's First Read

Below, one of my favorite political reporters, Chuck Todd, gives his thoughts on the events of the past week. He's one of the most fair, thoughtful and insightful reporters in the field today.

NBC's March Madness Metaphor

This morning, NBC News has a pretty cool metaphor for fans of college basketball and politics. As the Dems prepare to debate in Vegas, Domenico Montanaro draws similarities to the infamous UNLV teams of the early 90s.

LAS VEGAS, NV -- Thanks to Drudge, last month's debate in Philly, and Clinton's new position on drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants, tonight's Democratic showdown here at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas could be pretty interesting. Will Drudge's report of a Clinton camp warning to moderator Wolf Blitzer not to "pull a Russert" influence the debate? (Blitzer and CNN deny hearing from the campaign.) Will Clinton go on the offensive after playing defense at last month's debate? Did the New York senator -- by issuing a statement yesterday saying that, as president, she wouldn't support giving drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants -- open herself up to further charges that she evades tough questions? And given the UNLV venue, will Jerry Tarkanian or Larry Johnson be in attendance? Actually, that famous UNLV team could be a good metaphor. They seemed unbeatable until they met a more cerebral, though less talented, opponent. UNLV lost their undefeated season and the championship because they couldn't handle the pressure of a rare close game. Can Clinton handle the pressure now that she doesn't seem so inevitable?

NBC's "First Thoughts"

NBC does a nice job of summing up today's political headlines, including info on Hillary Clinton's newly unveiled health care plan, so I'll just let them take it from here:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
*** A clean bill of health: Clinton’s health-care rollout could not have gone better for the campaign: A national poll underscores Democratic primary voters' confidence in Clinton to pass a health-care plan, and her plan even gets a positive review from a conservative columnist like David Brooks. Perhaps most important for the campaign, as others have pointed out, her plan blurs (for the most part) any differences between the Edwards and Obama plans. Of course, those rivals -- as they did yesterday -- will hark back to the past to differentiate themselves with Clinton on this issue. But, lo and behold, here comes Clinton breaking from the past: On TODAY this morning, Matt Lauer asked her if her health-care plan would have been one that she would have rejected in 1993 when she pushed the issue then. That’s “absolutely the case,” she replied. Today, the campaign begins airing a new TV ad in Iowa and New Hampshire on -- guess what? -- health care, as well as hosting a live webcast on the plan.

*** Is the GOP licking its chops? But on a day when her focus was health care, did Clinton make a statement that could come back to haunt her, especially if she's the Democratic nominee? Speaking to the SEIU yesterday, Clinton made a promise to the anti-war crowd that she may or may not be able to keep, NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum reports. "I have voted against funding this war and I will vote against funding this war as long as it takes," she said. Doesn't this invite a Mitch McConnell to do whatever he can to get bills on to the Senate floor that force her (like what happened to John Kerry) to be in the minority on various troop-funding (read: "support the troops") measures? Earlier this year, Clinton -- along with Obama and Dodd -- voted against an Iraq supplemental because it didn’t contain a timetable for withdrawal.

*** Barack backing away? We encourage you to watch yesterday’s entire Brian Williams-Barack Obama interview. A few key takeaways: Obama seems to be tacitly acknowledging that his "turn the page" message is not resonating with Democratic primary voters (note his comment about Bill Clinton's popularity with Dems). Also, don’t miss Obama conceding that a Norman Hsu-like problem is systemic to fundraising -- not to a particular candidate. Finally, an overall observation from the interview as a whole: Obama seemed to take pains not to point out contrast with Clinton. Is he just that uncomfortable with getting down and dirty? And while some independents may see that as a badge of honor, do those candidates win primaries?

*** Minority Report: With GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad yesterday becoming the seventh Republican congressman to announce his retirement -- and with more possibly on the way -- the question no longer seems to be: Will Democrats hold onto control of the House after 2008? Rather, it’s: How big will the Dem majority be? The same is true of the Senate, where four Republicans (including Craig) have announced they will retire, and Democrats have recruited some impressive candidates (Mark Warner, Jeanne Shaheen, and maybe Bob Kerrey). Given this situation, does that produce -- as NBC political analyst Charlie Cook put it earlier this year -- a vicious cycle for Republicans? That a poor political environment produces retirements and poor fundraising and recruitment, which then produces even more retirements and even poorer fundraising and recruitment. Is the goal for congressional Republicans now to keep down the Dem gains as much as possible and shoot for 2010?

*** On the trail: Clinton hosts a “New York Farm Day” event on Capitol Hill; Obama, in DC, unveils his middle-class tax relief plan and then hits small-dollar fundraiser/rally; McCain raises money in DC; Richardson, in Chicago, takes his turn speaking to the Laborers and then fundraises in DC; and Romney campaigns in Florida.

Countdown to LA GOV election: 32 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 49 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 60 days
Countdown to Iowa: 118 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 123 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 140 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 413 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 490 days