Hillary Steps it up

The AP says Hillary's candidacy is "fading away." After ten straight Obama victory parties, it sure feels like it. She's starting to step up the rhetoric against "her opponent."

The comments were made at my parents' alma mater, Hunter College in Manhattan.

Letterman on McCain: He's Old

Obama Server Overwhelmed

Obama's donation page says, "Thanks to your overwhelming support, our servers are a bit overwhelmed right now."

Where We're At

Today is the Wisconsin primary and Hawaii caucus. 94 pledged delegates are at stake for the Democrats. For Republicans, only Wisconsin votes, with 56 delegates.

According to NBC News, here's where we stand:

Official NBC News Hard Count (Democrats)
Obama 1,116
Clinton 985

NOTE: There are 44 pledged delegates still unallocated, including 19 from MD, 10 each from CO and GA and one each from IL, NM, NY, TN and DC.

NBC News Political Unit Estimate for those 44: Obama 24, Clinton 20.

NBC News Political Unit Superdelegate Count
Clinton 257
Obama 184

GRAND TOTAL:
Obama 1,324
Clinton 1,262

Needeed to be Dem nominee: 2,025

Official NBC News Hard Count (Republicans)
McCain 822
Romney 282
Huckabee 243
Paul 14
Others 7

Needed to be nominee: 1,191

Independence in the Balkans

The San Francisco Gate has an editorial on Kosovo's independence, penned by the man I hope Barack Obama would choose as his running mate-- Sen. Joe Biden. Check it out if you want to get a firm handle on the situation over there.

Quote of the Day 2/19: Paging Bill O'Reilly

Michelle Obama told a crowd at a campaign stop in Madison that "for the first time in my adult life I am really proud of my country." This must have been music to the Clinton campaign's ears, because that is exactly the kind of misstep that Republicans will pounce all over in the general campaign, and there's no way Bill or Hill would have made a similar statement.

As you can see by the previous two posts as well, this caps a pretty bad day for Barack & Co.

Just (copied?) Words

Barack Obama is getting flack from the Clinton camp for lifting parts of his speech in Wisconsin from Deval Patrick, the MA governor who won election in 2006.



For his part, Obama notes that he and Patrick are friends and compare ideas, but admits that he should have credited the source of his speech. His campaign said that the charge was evidence of the Clinton's team "grasping at straws."

Picture of the Day 2/19: Che for the USA

Spotted: Che Guevara Flag in an Obama Texas Campaign Office

Since when did supporting a mass murderer become trendy? These misguided Obama supporters need to take this down ASAP and maybe catch up on history.

Meanwhile, in South Bend

SAM doesn't do a whole lot of local news/ politics, but today we'll make an exception. SAM is based out of a city called South Bend, IN, known mostly as the home of the University of Notre Dame.

However, South Bend is more than just a college town. For a more complete picture of where so many SAM bloggers live, check out this story, found on page 1 of the Local Section in today's South Bend Tribune.

Here's the headline to whet your appetite:

Woman Says Man Assaulted Her With Deer Antlers

How Will it End?

SOME say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To know that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice

- Fire and Ice, Robert Frost

People have been asking me a lot who I think will win the Democratic primary if it goes down to the Convention.

Mathematically, it will take Clinton blow-outs in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania to allow her to secure the nom based on elected delegates. Beyond that, she'll have to rely on superdelegates at the convention.

It's a nightmare that's a no- win situation for the Senator and her party. If the nomination is swung by Superdelegates, it will not only make Democrats into hypocrites from the Bush v. Gore fiasco, but it will leave Hillary illegitimate, amp up the Republican attack machine and sour her supporters. For those reasons, she'll concede before trying to gain the nomination that way.

It probably won't be in her control, anyway. Superdelegates are almost all former elected officials. If Obama has a clear lead among elected delegates, he'll have the allegiance of many superdelegates for the good of the party and the good of the process.

Yet, if Sen. Clinton can secure wins in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas, in addition to California, New York and Florida, she'll have carried 6 of the most populous states in the union. And if they are separated by only a handful of elected delegates, she'll have an equal claim to the nomination.

However, while Hillary's leads in those states seem to be holding, Obama usually gets stronger over time, so they might not deliver the clear mandates she needs there.

In the end, I don't see this unsettled in the Convention. The Democrats have too big a chance at victory to jeopardize by looking so small. The question is: how will it end?

Due respect to Mr. Frost, I see an icy, mid- March concession speech.

Leader of the New School

The last two years in American politics have been a kind of revolution only possible in the United States. It's not because this is such a great country that this revolution is unique here, but rather more complexed and nuanced, having much to do with America's history, social structure and open lines of communication that help to curb the tendency to grab an AK-47 and head for the capitol. However, for the moment, forget how this revolution could have happened, and let's look at why and the subsequent impacts.

Fareed Zakaria of Newsweek, one of the brightest political minds - period - has a compelling article that serves as a microcosm of the dynamic political shifts occurring in this nation. He suggests that Senator Hillary Clinton is having trouble because she's working in an outdated, political prism where conservative ideology dominated, and through which liberals like former President Bill Clinton had to maneuver. This landscape saw the demise of Democrats nationally, and within each state, and saw the likes of Ronald Reagan, Newt Gingrich and both Bushes come to prominence. It was the reason why strategies like triangulation were necessary, and worked. And Welfare reform is still a touted success among both Democrats and Republicans. It really shouldn't be seen as a coincidence that the Lewinsky scandal occurred in this period.

The Clintons had to be moderate, appeal to independents who may not have voted for them, and shun many Democrats who probably would've gone against them anyway. Liberalism may still be an ugly word, but ten years? Forget about it.

Now we're in President George W. Bush's America, where congressional spending is greater than at any time during President Clinton's tenure. An America that is embroiled in two wars whose end is hard to imagine, let alone try and place a deadline upon. This is an America that's seen utility prices rise, home foreclosures rise, college tuition rise, and the U.S. brand decline. So it was revolutionary, yet not so much a surprise, when staunchly Republican places like Kansas' second congressional district voted out the GOP incumbent in favor of a Democrat. Or when New England ridded itself of all but one Republican (from CT, no doubt). Yes, this was a major upset, and we would be fools to think it was solely about the parties or just the war on the voters' minds.

It's a revolution that may have taken a lull through much of 2007, but it's being seen again. Senator Barack Obama has won eight straight primaries to date, and is primed to take more. His is a campaign that seems naive and full of pie-in-the-sky rhetoric, but it works. His is a campaign that lacks detail in its policy proposals and substance in its intentions, but it wins. His is a campaign that speaks honestly and passionately about the hopes for this country and casts a wide net to include all kinds of folks to join and help. There's no sense of throat-cutting, triangulation or any other brutal calculation that further entrenches Americans' differences.

Senator Obama's campaign is one that's beating the Clinton dynasty, and, by extension, the politics of the last thirty years. That generation is losing because it did not heed the calls of independents and Republicans, who actually kick-started this revolution. The Old Schoolers have been listening to their own voices and that of political machines. Let's just keep haranguing homosexuals, because there's no way they'll be voting in a Democrat. Or, more recently: Let's just show up, because these Blacks are gonna vote for us anyway. We're the f*cking Clintons, for Christ's sake! Well, someone forgot to give the voters the message to stay watching CNN, to stay not giving a damn, and, most importantly, to stay home. Those machines did nothing for Clinton in Iowa and Virginia, just like Karl Rove's tactics couldn't whitewash President Bush's (and Former Rep. Dennis Hastert's Congress') ineptitude.

This revolution will be televised, and the voices of the past can console those invested in the status quo when they listen to Sen. Obama deliver yet another speech at the Democratic convention this summer. This time, he will be the last man speaking.

Staying along Chris's Theme from Earlier This Week Regarding Funny GWB Quotes:

Here are a couple for your enjoyment:

"If you're a younger person, you ought to be asking members of Congress and the United States Senate and the president what you intend to do about it. If you see a train wreck coming, you ought to be saying, 'What are you going to do about it, Mr. Congressman, or Madam Congressman?'"
-while discussing Social Security concerns in 2005

"This morning my administration released the budget numbers for fiscal 2006. These budget numbers are not just estimates; these are the actual results for the fiscal year that ended February the 30th."

"One has a stronger hand when there's more people playing your same cards."
-on holding six-party talks with North Korea in 2006

"In my judgment, when the United States says there will be serious consequences, and if there isn't serious consequences, it creates adverse consequences."
-defending his decision to invade Iraq in 2004

"This very week 1989, there were protests in East Berlin and in Leipzig. By the end of that year, every Communist dictatorship in Central America had collapsed."
- at the 20th anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy in 2003

That's enough for now. Plenty more where those came from.

Picture of the Day 2/14: P's & C's

- Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine of the New York Mets jog during warm-ups in Port St. Lucie, Florida on the first day of Spring Training. Today is the first day pitchers and catchers report to training camps all over Florida and Arizona.

Take a deep breath, the baseball season is almost here.

A Preview of What's to Come

There's been a flare-up between Barack Obama and John McCain's campaign, and it's very telling how McCain will handle the obvious contrast in age between the 46 year old Obama and the 71- year- old presumptive Republican nominee. The Politico reports...

"It’s nice of him to constantly point out how nice he thinks of John McCain and his half-century of service to our country," [McCain Campaign manager Tom] Davis said sardonically. "I don’t think he can get that ["half-century" line] out enough."

"I actually think half a century of service to our country is a good thing. If you would like to talk about the day John McCain went into the Naval Academy and pledged his loyalty to our country and everything that’s happened since then, let’s prosecute that. We love those kinds of discussions."

Davis, speaking at a Washington luncheon with reporters, also extended the criticism leveled by his candidate last night, suggesting that the 46-year-old Obama was offering vague rhetoric to mask liberal views.

"I think it’s easy to say, 'let's have hope,'" Davis said. "But hope has to come into some form.

"And what form is hope? Is hope higher taxes, greater government spending, a retreat out of Iraq?"

Jet Kemazi's Opening Credits (circa 2001)

Here's a blast from the past... famed filmmaker Jake Zimet was in his professional infancy when he made a series of acclaimed films entitled The Mike Tompkinson Show in the spring of 2001. Those films are now on YouTube, and below are the opening credits.

Quote of the Day 2/13: Rusty

"Just like any other lawyer in the free world does!"

~Rusty Hardin (left), on defending his right as an attorney to interview "The Nanny".


(Photo courtesy of ESPN.com)

Big Ups to SAM

I've noticed a lot of talk circulating the internet about how Barack Obama sounds just like Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson. I just want to point out that SAM blogger DEF and I posted about this all the way back on July 23.

Yankees, Republicans and Drugs- Oh My!

The main news today was the testimony of Roger Clemens and Brian McNamee before the House Oversight Committee. But what I found more shocking today than the testimony, which you can read about here or here, is that the event turned so partisan.

First, let's put two things on the table: I'm a Democrat and I loathe Clemens. He's one of my most hated players of all time. He's an arrogant bully, who proved he had no class well before today's testimony.

Let's get something else straight, too: Clemens is lying.

He changed his story multiple times, while his accuser had his account verified by two witnesses: Chuck Knoblauch and Andy Pettitte, Clemens' best friend in baseball, who testified that Clemens was injected just as McNamee says. Roger's response? Pettitte "misremembered." Even Clemens' wife admits McNamee injected her with HGH, but Roger says didn't he know about that. He claims that his trainer came into his house and injected his wife with Human Growth Hormone-- without his knowledge. He even fabricated a story about his presence at a party thrown by renowned steroid abuser Jose Canseco, a lie that was exposed by a former employee.

So why, in the face of all the facts, did almost all the Republicans on the Oversight Committee defend Clemens, and slam McNamee?

McNamee, a trainer who depended on Clemens for a $60k/ year salary, was called a "drug dealer" by Rep. Chris Shays (R- CT; my father's Representative), and a "liar." Shays said it was a fact, because McNamee "deals with illegal drugs." Please. A drug dealer slings crack to addicts on a street corner, or weed to kids outside a school. Roger Clemens is a grown man, a professional athlete who knew exactly what he was doing. McNamee had numerous clients, not all of whom did performance enhancing drugs. Clemens hired him, and paid him, in part because he got Clemens what he wanted.

Yes, McNamee lied, he lied for years protecting Clemens. Clemens was his meal ticket, until he was forced with the prospect of going to jail for obstruction and had to play ball (excuse the pun).

Shays was not alone, either. Republicans hammered McNamee and sucked up to Clemens, while Democrats aggressively called out the star pitcher. By the end of the hearings, Committee Chair Henry Waxman (D- CA) apologized to McNamee for his colleagues behavior.

So, I got to thinking about why Republicans approached the hearings this way, and I'm having a tough time coming up with answers. Apparently, Clemens is good friends with fellow Texan George W. Bush. He could be a big time Republican contributor, but I don't think that explains it.

In a situation where the truth seems so obvious, politicians are still split along party lines. It's almost like Republicans saw Democrats were going to be tough on Clemens, so they instinctively took the other side.

I'm trying not to slam Republicans for not prioritizing what seems like obvious objective truth. But I'm having a tough time avoiding it. It's sickening, and I just don't get it.

Last post on the weather--I promise

Let's follow-up on yesterday's weather experiment.

As we know, Obama blew away expectations. So much so that Clinton's campaign is blaming the weather, claiming that the weather disproportionately hampered older voters (who, according to exit polls, still prefer Clinton).

The bigger story, though, is that Obama seems to have carried virtually every other demographic segment. That apparent fact might absolve the seemingly busted weather theory--the theory that Obama underperforms in bad weather.

The hypothesis that Obama would not exceed expectations relied on a major, now defunct, premise: that Obama's support was largely composed of a mix of independents and young people (historically capricious blocs). The exit polls indicate that Obama's base of support is quickly and radically changing. Obama is becoming mainstream among Democrats. As this happens, his supporters will likely vote for him, rain or shine.

McCain/ Sanford '08

Reasons Why McCain Should Choose the South Carolina hero, Mark Sanford

1. In 4 years, he reduced South Carolina's budget deficit from $10 billion to $0

2. He, like McCain, is a leader in campaign finance reform.

3. He stands out against government waste: During his time in Congress, he returned $200,000 (1/3 of his office budget) and was inducted into the Taxpayers Hall of Fame. He even saved money while in Congress by sleeping on a cot in his D.C. office.

4. He is an all-around good guy. While being very smart (with an MBA from UVA), he enjoys spending time on his farm, surfing, and any other outdoor activity. He even was a cheerleader in college at Furman University.

5. He is a true environmental conservationist: He set aside more land than any other governor in history. Also, see his Washington Post editorial.

6. He stresses the need to "update" the government. In SC, his gubernatorial platform emphasized reforming the state's "horse and buggy" government to bring it into the 21st century. He truly strives for an efficient, responsive and fiscally responsible government.

7. He has the most fabulous family imaginable. Very Kennedy-esque. Four great boys and a smart and lovely wife (a past investment banker in NYC).

8. He is a clever campaigner. When he first ran for Congress in 1994, he was virtually unknown in South Carolina (having just moved there with his family). Out of absolute obscurity, he beat five other popular candidates in the SC primary.

9. He is very well liked in South Carolina. He won his gubernatorial seat by the largest margin of any SC candidate in recent memory.

10. Sanford's charisma, slight Southern drawl, and handsome looks will make the McCain ticket much more affable and voter-friendly.