Michigan Recap

Mitt Romney came away with a huge win in the Michigan primary last night, winning on the strength of high Republican turn-out and his "favorite- son" status. John McCain finished in second eight points back, he'll have to win South Carolina or Florida to get his mojo back.

This couldn't have turned out better for Rudy Giuilani, because the race continues to be up for grabs heading into Florida (even though he got only 3% in Michigan, 1/2 that of Ron Paul's support). He's in a dead heat with McCain in Florida, where he's spent so much time and money, but now that McCain isn't the front runner, look for Rudy to gain in polls.

So the nomination is totally unclear, and remember the undeniable trend we've seen in presidential politics where the incumbent is not running: the party that decides its nominee first nearly always wins in November.