Letterman: Top 10 Signs John McCain is getting too cocky

**Update** McCain certainly has reason to be cocky today, as Mitt Romney suspended his presidential campaign. In the words of Ferris Bueller: "Are you still here? It's over."

Top Ten Signs John McCain Is Getting Too Cocky

10. Canceled tomorrow's campaign appearances so he doesn't miss "Lost"

9. Spent the afternoon roughing up Romney supporters

8. Last night, he blew half campaign war chest playing internet poker

7. Already working on his 2012 re-election strategy

6. Plans to campaign for the next three days in "Vodkachusetts"

5. Recently told voter "Keep that ugly ass baby away from me"

4. Now refers to Mike Huckabee as "Mike Suckabee"

3. Has started yelling, "Bingo!" when he doesn't even have bingo (come on, folks, he's old!)

2. Renamed his campaign bus the "Bite Me Express"

1. Went to Mexico with Jessica Simpson

And on the Late Show Website, they provide these additional entries that make didn't make the cut:

· Already standing in front of White House yelling at kids to get off his lawn

· Yesterday in Arizona, invited press to watch him vote three times

· The new "Commander-in-Chief" tattoo on his ass

· He's taking a break from campaigning to tour with Hannah Montana

· Taking time off from campaign so he can compete on 'American Gladiators'

· Ends every speech by daring guys to come up and fight him

· Telling everyone to call him by his rap name: McDiddy

· "Straight Talk Express" now has stripper pole

· Devoting all his campaign money to the primary in Oaxaca

Quote of the Day 2/7: From Sir Charles with Love

"I don't believe in them. They always play the race card, and you can't always play the race card. Sometimes the race card is needed but not in every situation. We have to hold blacks more accountable for their actions."

- Charles Barkley on why he won't be inviting Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton to campaign for him as he runs for governor of Alabama in 2010. Barkley said he is "definitely" running.

Did Rain Hurt Obama?

It appears that rain may have cost Obama some votes (or even states) yesterday.

A poli sci grad student at UCLA has charted Obama's Super Tuesday performance where it rained versus where it didn't rain. In states where it didn't rain, Obama performed at or above expectations (i.e. he met or exceeded pre-election polls). Where it did rain, Obama only performed at expectations. In other words, the likelihood that Obama over-performed in a primary was greater if the weather was good.

Why would rain hurt Obama's turnout? According to my Bruin source, the answer probably lies in the fickleness of some Obama supporters. According to pre-February 5th exit polls, Obama is doing very well with (1) people who tend toward political independence and (2) voters under 45 years old. On average, political independents are notably less engaged in politics than partisans; among other effects of this lower engagement, they are less likely to be habitual voters. Thus their intended participation could be impeded by bad weather. Those with the voting habit are much less likely to say: Well it's raining, so I guess I won't vote today. The same considerations apply to younger voters: The voting habit is still being developed before age 40.

There are two things Obama can do to help his turnout in light of these findings. First, he should talk to the Chinese about weather control. Second, he would do well to put voter mobilization at the top of his investment list. He's swayed a number of people to be generally willing to vote for him--now he just needs to literally deliver them to the polls.

A Contradiction?

I've been confronted with an apparent contradiction of my two previous posts: In the last one I write that if the Democratic race goes to a brokered convention, Clinton is the beneficiary; yet in the prior post, I write that "the longer this drags on the more it favors Obama."

My muddled meaning is that Obama will do better with voters the longer the nominating contest goes. He'll have more time to persuade with his charisma and message. More than that even, more time to let people get used to the idea of him as president, especially older (Hispanic) voters who were so focused on the idea of Hillary.

The fact that he'll have a ton more money than she does won't hurt, either.

So where's the rub? Here: the Clintons are in General Sherman mode, they will slash and burn, leave nothing in the tank to get to the convention. They figure as long as they stop Obama from getting to that magic 2025 number, they can get to a brokered convention where their well- earned bartered respect will secure Hillary's nomination.

I realize that this makes Hillary seem like a schemer, attempting to steal the nomination from the people. I don't think it's like that. First, she could still win it outright, because the delegates are apportioned and it's just so damn close. At this unprecedented stage, with this unbelievably small margin, don't fault her for pulling out all the stops.

Would you want anything less of a president?

It's all about the delegates, baby

Last night, both Clinton and Obama vied for momentum and maybe even some kind of inevitability. It didn't happen for either of them.

Under the last post, someone made a smart comment about the way the calendar shakes out from here. The rest of February's primaries favor Obama: Virginia, Washington DC, Washington state and others. He could win five in a row. Then, in March, Ohio and Texas vote, which carry huge numbers of delegates, and figure to be Clinton strongholds.

The commenter, an Obama supporter, hoped that Hillary would bow out under the momentum of a string of Obama victories. Make no mistake, Bill and Hill are in it to the convention. So, we'll see a push for Obama in the coming weeks, but Hillary will pick up a solid amount of delegates (they're are apportioned) headed into March. The bottom line: Forget about momentum and spin and focus on the delegate count. More than half of Democrats have voted, but neither candidate has more than half the delegates needed for the nomination.

That means there is a very real possibility that this heads to a brokered convention, which favors three people- Hillary Clinton, John McCain and me. Hillary Clinton because she has the party establishment behind her, who could anoint her the nominee in a backroom (and make her pick Obama as her running-mate). John McCain because he'll have sewn up his party's nomination have a head start raising money campaigning for the fall. And me because a brokered convention would make Chris Matthews head explode, and I've always wanted to see that.

What Happened Last Night?

NBC's Chris Donovan reports:


MCCAIN
9 states
3 red states /6 blue states
Arizona
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Missouri
New Jersey
New York
Oklahoma


ROMNEY
6 states
4 red states / 2 blue states
Colorado
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Montana
North Dakota
Utah

HUCKABEE
5 states
5 red states
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Tennessee
West Virginia

OBAMA
13 states
9 red states / 4 blue states
Alabama
Alaska
Connecticut
Colorado
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Minnesota
Missouri
North Dakota
Utah

CLINTON
8 states
4 red states / 4 blue states
Arkansas
California
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
Oklahoma
Tennessee

My Take: It looks like the Republican race is all but over. Romney failed to claim California, Connecticut or any southern state. So he didn't establish himself as McCain's "conservative alternative," as he'd hoped. Instead, he won Mormon- heavy states and his home state. Huckabee, meanwhile, impressed, and seems likely to be the Vice Presidential nominee.

It's air- tight on the Democratic side right now. Each candidate did what they had to, but nothing more. Obama hoped for a coup in New Jersey or California, but didn't threaten Clinton in either. However, he was able to pick up red states and show his general appeal. It affirms my earlier prediction that Obama will have an easier time beating John McCain (especially with Huckabee on the ticket, which is a tough combo), and showed his appeal in "moderate" states.

As for Hillary, she got a nice surprise with such an easy win in Massachusetts, and she handily won the big prize-- California. She was not able to claim true victory, however, and the longer this drags on, I think, the more the situation favors Obama.

Headlines: The Aftermath

Picture of the Day 2/5

Michael Strahan and Eli Manning celebrate with 1 million Giants fans in the Canyon of Heroes, in Lower Manhattan, during their victory parade today.

Huckabee Wins WV, Romney PO'd

NBC News projects former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee won the West Virginia caucus, and picked up the state's 18 delegates.

This set off rival candidate Mitt Romney, who's campaign issued a scathing statement after Romney carried the caucus' first round of ballots with 41%, before Sen. McCain dropped out, and his campaign asked backers to support Huckabee, who won on the second ballot with 52%.

"Unfortunately, this is what Senator McCain's inside Washington ways look like: he cut a backroom deal with the tax-and-spend candidate he thought could best stop Governor Romney's campaign of conservative change.

"Governor Romney had enough respect for the Republican voters of West Virginia to make an appeal to them about the future of the party based on issues. This is why he led on today's first ballot. Sadly, Senator McCain cut a Washington backroom deal in a way that once again underscores his legacy of working against Republicans who are interested in championing conservative policies and rebuilding the party."

The Romney camp may also believe (as do I) that McCain has cut a deal with Huckabee, where Huck will stay in the race and detract from their candidate's support, until McCain sures up the nomination and tabs Huckabee as his running-mate. However, in all fairness, Huckabee has raised enough money and garnered enough support to earn the right to stay in this race.

Quote of the Day 2/5

"I guarantee you, as the nominee of my party, I can and will carry the city of New York as well as the state of New York, because we know how to appeal to independents."

- John McCain at a rally in NYC. A bold claim considering New York's liberal nature, and that McCain's likely opponent is a popular NY Senator.

Obama Music Video

This cool video is making the rounds on the inter-web this morning...

Super Tuesday Headlines

DeNiro to Obama: You're talking to me (Quote of the Day 2/4)

“You wanted to vote, you just didn’t have anyone to vote for. Well you know what? I felt the same way. Until now.”

- Robert DeNiro addresses young voters at a campaign rally in East Rutherford, NJ. DeNiro delivered his first ever political speech and introduced Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), who introduced Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) to a crowd of about 3000.

The crowd was far smaller than the 12,000 - 20,0000 turnouts the candidate enjoyed in other states. But weather, timing, and access to the Meadowlands (home of the Superbowl Champion Giants) were limiting factors. The scene did allow Newark Mayor Corey Booker to draw a comparison:

"The important thing about the Meadowlands is the spirit. I don’t know if you can smell it — there’s a spirit of upset."

Here Come the Waterworks...

Hillary Clinton was at her alma mater, Yale Law School, and introduced by her former boss, who described their first meeting back in the early 1970s.

It was an emotional moment, and Sen. Clinton wiped a tear from her eye.

“I said I would not tear up,” she said. “Already we’re not on that path.”

It was similar to a moment after the New Hampshire debate when she welled up talking about the "personal" nature of the issues in the campaign. The next day, Sen. Clinton overcame unfavorable polls and scored a primary victory.

In a completely unrelated story, new polling has Barack Obama surging in important Super Tuesday states like California, where the two are now in a statistical dead heat.

Carville & Frist Superbowl Commercial

My boy James Carville did an excellent commercial with former Sen. (now lobbyist) Bill Frist (who I think is C.P. Coleta's boy). For more on the Superbowl, scroll down.

My Boy!: Marc Landy on McCain

My favorite professor at Boston College, Marc Landy, had an interesting take on Arnold Schwarzenegger's endorsement of John McCain.

He taught me (almost) everything I know, so he knows his stuff. Check it out...

All Hail the NY Giants!!!

I was going to post this just before Superbowl XLII started, but I didn't want to jinx it. It's kind of corny, with the Madagascar cartoon and all, but I like it just the same.

Fox Still On Top

TV Newser, a website about the news of television news has reported the ratings for cable news shows in January 2008. And, as usual, it isn't even close. Although CNN scored ratings victories with the most watched debate and debate coverage, this chart shows it still has a long way to go. Also lagging, MSNBC likes to brag that it's the "fastest growing" news channel, but that growth hasn't done much to cut into the tremendous lead of Fox News. Leading the way, of course, was Mr. Bill O'Reilly:

1. The O'Reilly Factor (Fox)
2. Hannity & Colmes (Fox)
3. The Fox Report with Shep Smith (Fox)
4. Special Report with Brit Hume (Fox)
5. On The Record with Greta Van Susteren (Fox)
6. Americas Newsroom (Fox)
7. The O'Reilly Factor (Repeat) (Fox)
8. Larry King Live (CNN)
9. The Big Story with John Gibson (Fox)
10. Lou Dobbs Tonight (CNN)
11. Studio B with Shep Smith (Fox)
12. Your World with Neil Cavuto (Fox)
13. Happening Now (Fox)
14. Fox And Friends (Fox)
15. Live Desk with Martha MacCallum (Fox)
16. Americas Pulse (Fox)
17. Anderson Cooper 360 (CNN)
18, Out In The Open (CNN)
19. Countdown with Keith Olbermann (MSNBC)
20. CNN Election Center (CNN)

Money Well Spent

Oil giant Exxon/ Mobil announced the largest ever profit for a US company in 2007- $40.6bn, breaking its own record of $39.5bn set the year before. The company also broke the record for most profitable quarter- $11.7bn for the last three months of 2007, which surpassed the mark set in 2005 by (any guesses?)... who had Exxon/ Mobil? Correct!

The main reason behind the extraordinary profits are surging oil prices, which topped out at $100/ barrel earlier this month. Now, I'm as capitalist as the next guy (as long as this is the next guy), but this is making me sick. When President Bush was inaugurated in 2001, oil was $26/ barrel. It's now close to $90.

The price of gasoline is over $3/ gallon, and I can barely afford to fill up my tank (I might actually have to switch to Regular Unleaded if this continues).

President Bush is an oil man, from an oil family, and has the support of companies like Exxon/ Mobil. They certainly got their money's worth.

Over the next few months, I'm sure that we'll hear the question "Are you better off now than you were eight years ago?" a lot, as the presidential race progresses. It will be used as a rallying cry by Democrats because most Americans aren't.

But if you ask Exxon/ Mobil and its CEO, officers and big shareholders, you'll probably get a very different answer.

Sarah Silverman on Matt Damon

My TV is out so I can't watch the debates, but I did find this hilarious video that Sarah Silverman presented to her boyfriend on his late-night show, Jimmy Kimmel Live. It's not for the kids, so put em to bed before watching...